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NYSAC's October Economy Watch continues to show stabilization in the economy but no clear signs of sustained growth

November 6, 2009

The October edition of the NYSAC Economy Watch continues to give indications of a stabilizing New York Economy but no clear signs that the state has begun to experience any real sustained growth. More Economy Watch data is available on the NYSAC website at www.nysac.org.

“This Economy Watch gives us both hope and cause of concern for the future,” said NYSAC President Thomas J. Santulli, Chemung County Executive. “Unemployment is still far too high, consumer confidence is still far too low and our economic future is still far to unsure.”

The state’s unemployment rate rose slightly to 8.8% in September up slightly from the revised August unemployment rate of 8.7% (not seasonally adjusted). Although the state’s unemployment rate rose slightly, it is still significantly below the national unemployment rate of 9.5%, a rate higher than the unemployment rate in all but 3 New York counties.

“The prospects for continued high unemployment, stagnant economic growth and lagging sales tax revenues threaten the financial stability of the state and all local governments—particularly as counties prepare our 2010 budgets and the state grapples with its growing budget deficit,” said Santulli.

The state’s business barometer, The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (ICEI) – which takes into consideration indicators measuring the number of private sector jobs, unemployment rate, average work week hours in manufacturing and sales tax revenue collected – fell slightly in September, the second straight month of decrease since it rose in July for the first time in a year. The Index is showing relative stability over the past four months, after nine months steep decline.

The Consumer Price Index rose slightly, with the rising cost of apparel offsetting declines in the overall costs of housing. Prices for consumer goods and services, as measured by the consumer price index, have declined by 0.6% in the New York City Metropolitan area and 0.7% in the rest of the state since a year ago.

New York's overall Consumer Confidence fell by 1.9 points in October illustrating consumer concerns about the Economy's future. The index points to a continuation of lagging sales tax revenues for both the State and local governments for the foreseeable future.

Housing sales fell 17% in September but grew 31% overall during the 3rd quarter of the year, a traditional peak time for real estate sales. The median sales price of an existing single family home rose 5% for the month. Overall sales have declined 5.6% since a year ago, but median prices have risen slightly since September 2008.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, gives the clearest indication of potential economic growth and recovery. The General Business Conditions Index soared in September rising 15.8 points to its highest level in 5 years.

The New York State Association of Counties is a bipartisan municipal association serving all 62 counties of New York State including the City of New York. Organized in 1925, NYSAC’s mission is to represent, educate and advocate for member counties and the thousands of elected and appointed county officials who serve the public.           

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