February 2010 Economy Watch
The February Edition of the NYSAC Economy Watch continues to show signs of a stabilizing New York economy, despite unemployment increases caused by the end of traditional holiday season jobs. Several measures give strong indication that the advent of spring may also bring the first signs of renewed economic growth.
Click here for the print version of the NYSAC Economy Watch.
Business Barometer Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (ICEI)
New York’s ICEI fell slightly in January for the 6th consecutive month, dropping .02 points. The Index has declined by 1.3 points in the last 7 months as its rate of decline continues to moderate from that experienced in the first half of 2009. This “braking” period follows 9 consecutive months of steep drop when the Index fell by almost 4.0 points, with New York entering recession in August 2008, 9 months after the nation as a whole.
Unemployment Rates (NYS Department of Labor)
The State’s unemployment rose to 9.4% in January (not seasonally adjusted) as employers shed traditional holiday seasonal jobs. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate (SA), a better rate for month-to-month comparisons which takes into consideration seasonal hiring fluctuations, declined from 8.9% in December to 8.8% in January. The US unemployment rate (SA) declined from 10% in December to 9.7% in January.
For the latest unemployment rates by county, click here.
For regional unemployment numbers, click here.
Consumer Price Index
Consumer Prices rose for the month due to increasing costs for food and health care which rose significantly: Upstate (0.8) NYC Metro (1.3.)
CPIU |
Monthly Change |
Annual Change 10/08 – 10/09 |
NYC Metro |
-0.1 |
2.3 |
Northeast Region |
-0.1 |
2.8 |
For more on the Consumer Price Index, click here.
For the latest CPI regional charts, click here.
Consumer Confidence (Siena Research Institute)
New York‘s overall consumer confidence decreased by 3.0 points, because of increasing wariness of the future. Consumer buying plans for major items like cars, trucks fell 2.1 points but home purchase plans increased 2.1 points.
For more information, click here.
January 2010 |
USA |
NYS |
Metro NYC |
Upstate |
Overall |
74.4 |
68.6 |
72.9 |
62.1 |
Current |
81.1 |
69.0 |
69.4 |
68.6 |
Future |
70.1 |
68.4 |
75.2 |
57.9 |
Numbers in parentheses indicate change from last month.
Housing Prices and Activity (NYS Assn. of Realtors)
Housing sales fell from December due to seasonal factors, but were up 11% from a year ago. Median prices rose 13.5% for the month and 30.5% from a year ago. Real Estate has shown signs of growth in most of New York.
For more on the housing information, click here.
For housing information by county, click here.
NYS |
Nov 09- Dec 09 |
Dec 08- Dec 09 |
Dec 07 – Dec 09 |
Sales % |
-6.2% |
21.0% |
4.0% |
Median Price % |
8.5% |
3.3 % |
1.4% |
Dec 09 |
Dec 08 |
Dec 07 |
|
Median Price |
$222,000 |
$215,950 |
$219,000 |
Job Growth, according to NYS Department of Labor
Private Sector jobs (not seasonally adjusted) fell 3.0% since last month as traditional seasonal jobs ended. Seasonally adjusted private sector jobs rose 30,500 or 0.4%
For more on New York's employment numbers, click here.
The employment growth file shows comparison of State and National Job creation rates, click here.
For employment growth numbers by metro and non metro areas, click here(non farm) click here (private sector).
Non-Farm Employment |
USA |
New York |
December 2008 |
135,917 |
8,818.1 |
November 2009 |
132,227 |
8,653.5 |
December 2009 |
131,821 |
8,648.3 |
Monthly % Change (11/09-12/09) |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
Annual % Change (12/08-12/09) |
-3.0 |
-1.9 |
Private Sector Employment |
||
December 2008 |
113,023 |
7,284.3 |
November 2009 |
109,261 |
7,135.3 |
December 2009 |
109,005 |
7,131.2 |
Monthly % Change (11/09-12/09) |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
Annual % Change (12/08-12/09) |
-3.6 |
-2.1 |
WARN Notices, NYS Department of Labor
Jobs losses affected by WARN Notices continued to decline in February with 1,577 jobs affected, down 1,335 jobs from the previous month. This is the 3rd consecutive month of decline in job losses indicated by WARN notice.
For more on WARN notices, click here.
For detailed WARN notices, click here.
Month |
# WARN s |
Employees |
4th Quarter 2008 |
92 |
12,876 |
1st - 3rd Qtr 2009 |
410 |
33,244 |
4th Quarter 2009 |
77 |
10,604 |
Total 2009 |
487 |
43,848 |
January 2010 |
24 |
2,888 |
16 Month Total |
603 |
59,612 |
Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Federal Reserve)
General Business Condition Index – The General Business Conditions improved for the 7th consecutive month in February climbing 9 points. 42% of the CEOs responding indicated business conditions had improved with only 17% noting a decline in their business activity.
Future Activity Index – The Future Activity Index measuring projected business conditions in the next 6 months continued high with 60% of respondent CEOs foreseeing improving business conditions ahead.
Supplemental Report – The supplemental report on workforce size indicated that 64% of manufacturers expect to increase employment this year while just 10% projected declines in the size of their workforce.
For more on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, click here.
For the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey information, click here.
