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Census Seminar Focuses on the Impact of Population Losses and Gains
May 7, 2008
With 38 New York State counties losing population or growing at less than the state average of 1.7 percent, it is imperative that state and county officials focus on the US Census numbers and how these numbers will impact future federal funding and congressional representation.
County officials from across the state participated in a seminar today on the latest population estimates released by the US Census Bureau. The session, hosted by the New York State Association of Counties (NYSAC) and its partners, discussed how counties will be impacted by the estimates and what they can do to challenge them.
“State and county leaders are concerned about our flat growth. The fact that 38 of our counties either lost population or have grown at less than the state rate of 1.7 percent is a troubling trend. If it continues, we will have fewer taxpayers to pay for an increasing number of services at a time when our property taxes are already too high,” said NYSAC Executive Director Stephen Acquario.
According to the population estimates released in March, the national rate of growth is 7.2 percent while New York State’s rate of growth is 1.7 percent, ranking 43rd in the nation in percentage growth. New York, which is the third largest state behind California and Texas, is losing ground to Florida, which grew at 14.2 percent for same period and is estimated to have pulled to within 1 million people of New York's overall population of estimated to be at 19,297,729 as of July 1, 2007.
New York is also estimated to have lost 2% more in its population to other areas of the country then have moved here, further exacerbating New York’s slow population growth rate.
If this population trend continues:
- New York could lose at least 2 Congressional seats after the 2010 census,
- Congressional districts will shift from areas of population loss to population growth (Upstate to Hudson Valley, New York City and Long Island),
- Upstate New York, in which 32 counties have lost population, will have difficulty attracting businesses that base location decisions in part on the census population estimates, and
- New York will continue to lose population-based federal funding to other states.
“Of the 24 New York counties which grew more than the state rate of 1.7 percent, a majority are downstate counties,” said Lucille M. McKnight, NYSAC President. “This growth presents its own set of challenges these particular counties must prepare for and resolve."
This program was conducted by experts from NYSAC, Empire State Development’s New York State Data Center and the Program on Applied Demographics at Cornell University. The session was also sponsored by the New York State Association of County Planning Directors, the Community and Rural Development Institute at Cornell and the Pelletier County Government Institute.
The population estimates are used in state and federal funding formulas to allocate relative shares of funding to the state and in turn our local communities. During the seminar, county officials learned about the implication the estimates will have on their counties in the coming year. The session also examined the challenges New York’s changing population demographics may present to counties in the future.
“NYSAC will continue to follow these trends very closely so we can support county efforts to respond to New York’s ever-changing demographic picture,” said Acquario.
Copies of the US Census Bureau population estimate tables can be downloaded from our website at www.nysac.org/Policy_and_Research/.
The New York State Association of Counties is a bipartisan municipal association serving all 62 counties of New York State including the City of New York. Organized in 1925, NYSAC’s mission is to represent, educate and advocate for Member Counties and the thousands of elected and appointed county officials who serve the public.
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